Let’s talk about the electoral college, since that’s where presidential elections are won and lost.

According to RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polls and asigns a poll number that averages polls, Obama leads in states with 238 electoral votes while McCain leads in states with 190 electoral votes and there are 11 “toss up” states that will be the “battleground” in November.

That sounds pretty good for Obama, to lead and all despite being pretty close in the overall vote.

However,when you look at the 11 “toss ups”, Obama has the uphill road and McCain the downhill slide in all of them.

The 11 “toss up” states with electoral votes in parentheses are:

Ohio (20), Mich. (17), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Colorado (9), New Hamp. (4), N.M. (5) and Nev. (5).

There are no current polls for three of those states, New MX, Colo., and Missouri. Missouri was Bush +7.2 in ’04, N.M. was Bush +0.7 and Colorado was Bush +4.7. I hear a lot of talk about N.M. and Colorado “flipping” blue and maybe that’s true, but they were all three red the last presidential election.

Two of the eleven states went for Kerry in ‘o4. They were Michigan, +3.4, and N.H., +1.3. However, McCain leads the RPG poll of poll in both those states, by +1.6 in Mich. and by +1.4 in N.H.

Of the remaining six states, Obama leads only in Ohio, +1.3, in a state that was Bush +2.0 in ’04.

Indiana went for Bush by +20.4 and McCain leads there by +2.0 and North Carolina was +12.4 for Bush and McCain leads there by +4.5.

In Virginia, which Bush carried by +8.2, McCain leads by +1.3 and in Nevada, carried by Bush +2.6, McCain leads by a point.

The next two closest states are Iowa (7), carried by Bush +0.7, with Obama leading by +8.0, and Florida (27), carried by Bush +5.0, with McCain leading by +8.3.

I conclude that Obama is a significant underdog and must climb over the next 5 months while McCain’s task is to consolidate as the frontrunner in the swing states. Mitt Romney as VP for McCain would appear to make the GOP a much more likely winner by bringing Michigan into the red zone and taking it out of play. Obama’s choice is less clear.

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I think I’m blah about blogging. It’s the heat.

Oz and Mrs. Oz are in Italy, but the thinned crowd at Paseo goes on (and on) to dinners. About a half dozen of us went to the new Prohibition Grill at the gold dome bank and it was a mixed review with the Bookemdano wanting the 5-0h to clamp down on the Reuben he couldn’t eat. It’s a pleasant enough place for a drink and I like the staff and it’s good to see some old friends there.

I have an extremely high regard for Ernesto Sanchez, but I wasn’t thrilled with his work at JRB on First Friday. Too brown, he wrote idiotically.

tonight, Sugar Free All Stars opened for Congratulations from Denton, TX, at Sauced!, but there were very few souls there to be (wind)blown away.

I’ve been keeping busy at the office and had an honest-to-goodness evidentiary hearing before a judge this morning. Got most of what I wanted for my client and stood up to a woman atty who has been trying to bully and goad me. She got much more conciliatory after the hearing, I may say.

Mostly, I’ve been reading blogs because other people’s lives seem more interesting than mine at the moment. I’m rivited by the idea of “abstinence panties” and my grand-nephew’s 3 month photos and the continuing drama of messy homes.

I noticed James Carville said he, too, thought Al Gore should be asked by Obama to take the Veep spot. I also hope for other names, like maybe Bill Gates, Stephen Jobs or Bloomberg of NYC. A lot of people are writing about Joe Biden, but I can’t see two plagiarists on the Dem ticket.

Hillary might get the Veep nod just by default. Everyone else seems diminished by her presence on the stage.

Saw a really really terrifficc movie: The Fall. Little indie film at Quail Springs. Just beautiful to watch. Very very imaginative tableaus, quite colorful and obviously influenced by Kirusawa. A child actor that charmed me. I very highly recommend this movie to anyone not insisting on gratuitous nudity or car chases or things that blow up.

One of the Sauced! cyclists took a 40-foot fall after being hit by a car. No insurance of course. Drop some coin into one of the jars around, if you please. The guy was in surgery today — maxilofacial to repair his face and the 36 skull fractures.

Opened Mom’s pool last weekend and The Gary says his will open next weekend or so. It’s that time of year. There have been some awesome gatherings around Gary’s pool in past summers and I’m looking forward to more this year.

MindOverMary indicates there’s an OKC trip in our future. C’mon, honey! We can’t wait to have you home for awhile. The guys are already lining up to kiss your … face.

Just wanted you to know I actually have a life and I’m pretty much too busy living it to have time for blogging. Good times.

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P.S. I note with disgust that Lyric has chosen “The Sound of Music” for this summer season.

k.d. lang and The Reclines do a great cover of Johnny Get Angry and I think it’s the opener to the second set for the Diebold Blitzkreig. If any of y’all see me huntin’ down girls anytime soon, I just want you to know I’m only engaging in a talent hunt (nudge nudge wink wink) for someone to front the band. It’s cool. Back off man.

My own personal VP pick for Obama is Al Gore with the global warming portfolio, since it will take intensive international cooperation. He’s a Nobel Winner and he’s certainly prepared after a former 8 year stint to take it on. I think he’d approach it with zeal for the reason that he would have a world premier platform to work on the issue. I do not think Hillary is a good choice, nor any other woman. One black man is enough novelty for America in 2008, I’m thinking. I think Edwards as Attorney General and I think he would relish that role and clean up the Dept. of Justice and alter the trajectory of our judiciary. I would offer Hillary the Health and Human Services Cabinet Job if she wanted it. I would keep Gates and Patraeus because it should be their burden to clean up in Iraq and it would signal a “bipartisan” foreign policy that is a real shift to the center. I might even bring back Colin Powell and rehabilitate him as SecDef instead of keeping Gates, but I want to sleep on that pick. For health reasons, President Clinton will take a lower profile as Ambassador to lower Paraguay. Or, maybe Yemen. Or maybe even Madagascar. Mali maybe. Wes Clark as global info high muckety muck, whatever they call Homeland Security these days. I might even form an entire “shadow government” as they sometimes do in England and other parliamentary countries. For the FDA, NOAA and NASA as well as NIH, a bunch of those science based agencies would go to the very best I could find in their fields without respect to politics. Parts of the government have become unprofessional in my opinion and that must need strong remedy. The reality check needs to bounce on the GOP where science no longer depends on superstition and economics is no longer wishful thinking. So MUCH needs to be done!

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Sorry, I just haven’t had anything I was burning up to write about. I missed my grandchild’s birthday in the hubbub of my trip to see Jack, but I’ll make up for it tomorrow. Please, Rebecca, blame it on my Oldtimer’s and not the fact that I’m a bad Gramp-A-Long.

I thought this tune could close the first set of my new band, Diebold Blitzkreig. You don’t know a good looker like this one who could front a band, do you?