Politics
Saturday, August 30th, 2008OK, here’s my take on the politics of the last week:
Sarah Palin
A presidential candidate has his/her first opportunity to show how the candidate will govern when he/she chooses a vice presidential nominee. Essentially, the nominee chooses someone who can help govern or someone who helps get elected. Obama’s choice was a governing choice, a partner to help with foreign policy and to manipulate the levers of power, in Sen. Biden. McCain’s choice was an electoral choice and not a governing choice, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Sen. McCain’s choice essentially brushes aside any concerns voters may have about his age and health: clearly, Gov. Palin is not prepared to step into the presidency. However, asking the question of her preparedness totally misses the point. McCain is not concerned about that. Her selection is about getting elected. How can that be? She’s from a 3 electoral vote state that is pretty reliably Republican! That also misses the point, IMO. Sen. McCain has not had the enthusiastic support of the evangelicals who massed to the polls and volunteered to help President Bush. James Dodson, for example, was prominently on the sidelines. Sen. McCain has pandered all he could and still didn’t have them on his side. He does now. Gov. Palin isn’t just talk about abortion, she walks the walk with her newborn Downs Syndrome child. She’s an Assembly of God churchgoer: not just an evangelical, but also pentecostal (if you thought Rev. Wright’s church was weird, wait until you see people speaking in tongues). James Dodson is now enthusiastically on board. With Gov. Palin, there’s no transparent bull about guns like there was with Sen. Clinton: this woman really does hunt and fish and is a lifetime National Rifle Association member. Another group of the far right climbs aboard the Straight Talk Express. If you go down the checklist of the 28% of voters who still stand by President Bush (66% of GOP voters), she is golden
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to them.
Much of presidential politics, I’m sorry to say, is image: how does it look on television? She’s as photogenic as they come, personable and easy to identify with for many mothers. You might snark about her Univ. of Idaho journalism degree, but it would be a mistake to underestimate her or consider her stupid. A great many of her social conservative views are not at all about “smart”, they are about “faith”.
I do wonder about making a choice of a vice presidential candidate on the basis of one quick meeting at a governors’ conference in February followed by a couple of quick phone calls. Is shooting from the hip straight talk maverick governing, as McCain has demonstrated here, a good or a bad thing? Don’t know, but it makes me uneasy. I wonder why Olympia Snow, Kay Bailey Hutchison or Elizabeth Dole were passed over if Hillary PUMAs were the target. When her fellow Alaska Republican, the head of the GOP in the state legislature, says “prepared to lead the nation? she isn’t prepared to be governor!” — hmmmm. There’s a special prosecutor in Alaska looking into Gov. Palin’s actions with respect to trying to get her ex brother in law fired (her ex bro.n law, btw, is a prick who probably should have been fired IMHO) and an indictment or report is due right before the November elections. That can’t be good. No one, and I mean absolutely no one, is prepared to go from Alaska to the kind of scrutiny one gets as a vice presidential nominee; she will make mistakes, as all humans would, and they will be amplified if her mistake fits one of the media narratives the way Quayles’ misspellings did. That didn’t prevent Bush I from beating Dukakis, though, did it?
So, was Gov. Palin a good pick or not? The answer really is that she will either shine or fail with nothing in between and time will tell the tale. She’ll have a honeymoon during the convention and that will give the GOP a chance to define her before Obama’s campaign can do so. Obama needs to be very, very careful not to go overboard and not to be sexist. The answer to the question also lies with the Democrats, in my view: an unforced error and she’s a hero.
Obama’s speech
More people — 38-40 million — watched his speech on TV; more than saw the Academy Awards or watched the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony. Wow.
The visuals: compare and contrast the tee-shirted crowd of blacks, whites and Latinos at Invesco Field with the stickuptheass all white GOP convention we’re about to see in the twin cities. How many shots of the crowd did you see with people who had tears running down their cheeks? I can’t imagine that at the convention we’re about to see.
The speech: not his best in terms of “tingle up the leg”, but everything it should have been and more. A home run and A+ without doubt. Very very strong on standing up to the quivering cavils by McCain of “celebrity” and “inexperience”. This is not Kerry or Dukakis, this guy from Chicago has steel. A frontal attack on McCain’s “temperament” to be president gobsmacked me: I didn’t expect it and think it’s wonderful but how will that play among those in the reliably vote every time over 65 crowd? I don’t know. I preferred the policy contrasts to the character stuff. Finally, it really is the economy, stupid, and you either buy what the Dems or selling or you don’t. I think you may see the last 8 years as economic disaster, but still think Obama’s prescriptions are even worse. Nevertheless, I think the “are you better off than you were 8 years ago?” Reagan question is a real problem for the GOP and McCain is the least likely Republican to be able to shore up the party on that score; further, Gov. Palin doesn’t much help despite her reputation as a cost cutter and fighter of the so-called Bridge to Nowhere. So far, we’ve seen a campaign of numbers: how many in this demographic and how many in that blahblahblah polls more blahblahblah. The numbers that count are: number of first time unemployed; number of bankruptcies; number of bank failures; number of foreclosures; third quarter reports on retirement accounts; price of gasoline, houses, food. The worse those numbers are for ordinary Americans, the more likely a Dem landslide than an eked out win. On foreign policy, President Bush has hurt McCain far more than anyone else possibly could. Obama’s mention that McCain stands alone in support of continued occupation of Iraq puts the GOP nominee in what I see as a very deep hole. All of which is to say that I thought Obama’s “framing” of the issues was brilliant and that I wanted this to be a substantive speech and not another 2004 keynote address and I think Obama did everything he could possibly do to win in November.
Bill’s speech
President Clinton’s speech was masterful from a political point of view and from a personal point of view, he reminded me what it was like to have an intelligent president who can speak the King’s English. He rehabilitated his “legacy” and shored up Obama’s credentials and put the final nail in the Unity pony.
Hillary’s speech
This was the best speech I have heard her give. After the Ohio and Texas primaries, she slowly gained my admiration for her grit and toughness and after this speech, I’m sure I would have enthusiastically voted for her had the outcome of the primary been different. She unified the party further after her surprise “acclimation” motion and I don’t think I can be one of those who says it’s Hillary’s fault if Obama loses. She did everything she could and more as far as I’m concerned.
Michelle’s speech
Just terrific. Pitch perfect. Nothing but praise.
The convention overall
I thought the Dems did a very good job of building up the excitement and enthusiasm of the party faithful as they watched over the four nights. Lots of minor stars got to shine, like Kucinich, Kerry, Gov. Schweitzer of Montana, Bob Casey. Some good lines: “that’s not a maverick, that’s a sidekick”. I thought the convention overall made the media, hunting too hard for controversy in the Hillary Harridan meme, look putrid and the viewership of CSPAN probably swelled considerably as time went on and we got tired of the talking heads, even the ones like Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann who we supposedly like because they are closet Dems in the tank for Obama.
The polls
Gallup shows Obama +8. Ignore the polls. They are stupid.
on a personal note
Son Jack has decided to watch Gustav from an Oklahoma City television rather than in person in New Orleans. He was near Dallas midafternoon Saturday on his way here. His father is delighted and relieved.
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